Initial jobless claims measure the number of filings for state jobless
benefits. This report provides a timely, but often misleading, indicator of the
direction of the economy, with increases (decreases) in claims potential
signalling slowing (accelerating) job growth. On a week-to-week basis, claims
are quite volatile, and many analysts therefore track a four week moving average
to get a better sense of the underlying trend. It typically takes a sustained
move of at least 30K in claims to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
There are two other statistics in this report -- the number of people
receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate; neither is watched
closely by the market. Some analysts track the number of people receiving state
benefits from month to month as a guide for job growth, though this series has a
poor track record in predicting the monthly employment report. The insured
unemployment rate changes little on a weekly basis and is never a factor for the
market.
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